Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican nomination?

Former President Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign is underway, but he's not the only person battling for the Republican nomination: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, entrepreneur and "anti-woke" activist Vivek Ramaswamy and others make up a crowded GOP field currently led by the former president.

Meanwhile, however, Trump is up against several historic indictments, one of which pertains to his alleged attempts to interfere with the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, which resulted in the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021. Another involves his alleged mishandling of classified documents at his private Florida resort. He was also indicted in Georgia on charges related to his actions during the 2020 election and is facing additional charges in New York for allegedly falsifying business records. With his competition and legal woes in mind, how likely is Trump to win the 2024 nomination?

Is Trump the 2024 Republican front-runner?

DeSantis at one time appeared to be Trump's main competition. The governor was reelected during the 2022 midterms in a landslide, but has been besieged by a campaign that The Washington Post described in August as "almost uniformly negative."

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As a result of DeSantis' lackluster performance, Trump still dominates the polls and is continuing to rise. A Nov. 16 Iowa State University poll with a 5.9% margin of error found DeSantis lagging far behind Trump in the crucial Iowa caucus, with only 18% of GOP respondents in the state likely to vote for him. The Florida governor also has competition on his tail, as Nikki Haley is catching up to him with 12%. Both of them are nowhere close to Trump, though, who received 54% in the poll, placing him in the driver’s seat in Iowa. Nationally, FiveThirtyEight’s poll aggregate showed DeSantis trailing the former president by nearly 50 points as of Nov. 22.

There's nothing in the Constitution that prohibits an indicted person, or even a convicted felon, from running for president, and among Republicans, Trump gained in the polls following his first indictment in April. While this wasn't the case during his second indictment, he did get a boost after his third in August; according to a RealClearPolitics national poll aggregation cited by Intelligencer, Trump's support was at 53.9% on Aug. 1, the day he was indicted for the third time. As of Aug. 13, it had risen to 54.2%. This is despite the fact that a majority of Americans — 65% — classified Trump's Jan. 6-related indictment as "serious" in an ABC News/Ipsos poll. In all, FiveThirtyEight’s national aggregate has Trump holding a 60.2% lead among Republicans as of Nov. 22, far outpacing any other GOP candidate and representing a three-point jump since the beginning of November.

Trump's continued support could be partially because, given the multiple indictments now under his belt, "the novelty of a former leader of the United States being called a felon has somehow worn off," The New York Times reported. It has become clear from his steady polling numbers that "most Americans made up their minds about [Trump] long before prosecutors ... weighed in." So it appears that his indictments may not play a major factor in his getting the nomination — unless the landscape changes drastically. 

Who else is running?

Haley, a former governor of South Carolina who previously said she wouldn't run if Trump did, was one of the first to enter the race and was described by the New Statesman as “an extremist in moderate clothing.” And while she started off slow, polls show her creeping up; while the aforementioned Iowa State poll shows her trailing DeSantis in the state’s primary, a Des Moines Register poll in October had her tied with the Florida governor. 

Ramaswamy entered the race as a dark-horse candidate, and The Associated Press noted that his candidacy is still a “longshot bid.” However, his poll numbers have been rising, which made him the primary target at the GOP’s first (and Trump-less) presidential debate. Ramaswamy, who wrote a book decrying “woke-ism” and pushed to eliminate affirmative action and various government agencies, is currently sitting at 6% in the Iowa State poll, coming in fourth place behind Trump, DeSantis and Haley.

Chris Christie has been the most vocal critic against Trump from the GOP’s pack of candidates. Since the second indictment, Christie, a former prosecutor, has made many public remarks about Trump's handling of classified documents. What Christie is saying is "very, very important," Frank Bruni wrote in the Times. “He's telling the unvarnished truth about Trump, and he's the only candidate doing that ... he's artfully, aggressively and comprehensively making the case against Trump.” Christie’s poll numbers remain low, however; as of Nov. 22, FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate placed him at 2.8% nationally, a drop from the beginning of October. He is also polling at just 3% in the Iowa State poll, which could put his campaign in further jeopardy.

Trump has also lost a number of foes in the race, including his old second-in-command, former Vice President Mike Pence. The former vice president suspended his presidential campaign on Oct. 28, saying it was “not my time.” However, Trump likely never had much to worry about in that regard, as Pence’s campaign was besieged by financial struggles and consistently low national polling. 

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott also ended his bid for the presidency, announcing in an interview on Nov. 12 that the country was telling him, “not now.” Scott had entered the race trying to paint himself as a moderate Republican who is a supporter of "traditional conservative values." Like Pence, though, Scott’s campaign saw low polling numbers and enthusiasm throughout its short run.

Neither Pence nor Scott endorsed anyone for president after suspending their campaigns. 

Who doesn't want Trump to be the nominee?

In the 2022 midterms, Trump saw almost all of his endorsed candidates lose by large margins. "It's basically the third election in a row that Donald Trump has cost us the race, and it's like, three strikes, you're out," former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) told CNN.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) would also like to see a fresh face as the GOP's 2024 nominee and said in May she wants someone other than Trump or DeSantis at the top of the Republican ticket. Otherwise, "if that's the contest, Republicans are doomed," she declared. 

And it’s not just politicians who don’t want Trump to be the nominee. An April AP/NORC poll of 1,230 adults found that 44% of Republicans don’t want the former president to run for the White House again, in addition to 63% of independents who felt the same. However, that same poll found that 86% of Republicans also felt that the indictments against Trump were politically motivated. 

Who thinks Trump will be the nominee?

Quite a few Republicans. Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, the chair of the House Republican Conference, is one of the highest-ranking GOP members to publicly support Trump's 2024 bid. Rep. Ronny Jackson of Texas, a physician who was previously Trump's medical adviser, tweeted, "President Trump is the greatest President I've ever seen. I'm on his side 100%!" 

Other Republicans who have endorsed the former president include Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, 11 GOP senators, and 76 GOP House members, per Insider. The newly-elected speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, is also a staunch supporter of Trump, and notably led efforts in 2020 to try and overturn then-President-elect Joe Biden’s victory. Given that Johnson is now the de facto leader of the House of Representatives, his support of Trump could loom large as the election draws closer.